Are there any resources or experiments done to contradict gambler's fallacy?

by Anurag Gangwar   Last Updated December 27, 2017 15:19 PM

Let us consider a coin toss game in which there are 5 players and one fair coin (P(H)=P(T)=0.5). All these five players bet against the value on each toss and based on the result of each toss, there is either exchange of money or addition/subtraction of points, which each player tends to maximize and fear its reduction/loss.

Also, in this game, the process of betting is visible to all players and it is only after everyone has voted or betted against the coin, the result of the toss is revealed to all players and then the rewards/points are rewarded/deducted such that there some winners (which made the right bet or guess) and some losers (which made the wrong guess) in every round.

Now, I have two questions

  1. Regarding the influence of winners of the previous rounds and the first sets of bids of the same round, on the players, and on their betting decisions.
  2. Has there been any study or experiment done to map out any correlation at all between the betting pattern (which is based on intuitive and guided by the dynamic synergies between the players) and the actual value of the coin tossed?

Also, if there is any study to show does the betting decisions are influenced by the winners (perceived winners of the past rounds) and the first bidder and that has any effect on the value of the coin.

Please help.

Thank you.



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